Event Exposure
How exposed the market is to concentrated upside-capture and to a near-term, market-moving event. In plain terms: is a tiny group capturing the profits, and can a single whale move the displayed odds before a scheduled catalyst lands?
How we score it
We extract the entities the question names, match them against upcoming calendar events, and weight by how close the nearest catalyst is — a clear runway with no imminent scheduled event raises the score; a known calendar event (election, ruling, data release, FOMC) landing within days lowers it. Alongside the calendar horizon we read profit/flow concentration: a market small enough that one large bettor can distort the displayed price, or where a handful of wallets capture most of the upside, carries elevated event exposure.
How to read your score
Higher means a calmer horizon with diffuse participation. A lower score flags a near-term scheduled event that can move the market discontinuously, and/or a concentration profile where a few large players can move the displayed odds. This axis is scored 0-100; the composite weights it at 10%.
No meaningful risk signal on this axis. Nothing here that warrants extra scrutiny before taking a position.
A clean read with only minor or ambiguous signals. Reasonable to proceed with normal due diligence.
A moderate signal worth a second look. Read the evidence on the market page before sizing a position.
A pronounced structural signal on this axis. Understand exactly what is driving it before participating.
A strong structural signal. This axis is the kind of thing a careful trader would resolve before trusting the market's price.
Signals we look for
A known, calendar-scheduled event tied to the question's entities landing within days.
A handful of wallets capturing the majority of realized profit.
A market small enough that one whale's share of capital can move the displayed odds.
Correlated accumulation across linked markets by the same large players.
Thin liquidity relative to the size of positions being taken.
References
The academic, industry, and regulatory sources that ground how this dimension is scored. Each note states what the source backs.
A tiny group is winning on Polymarket as under 1% of wallets take half the profits
Solidus Labs / CoinDesk (profit-concentration analysis) · 2026
Backs the concentration signal: <1% of wallets captured ~50% of political-market profits (on-chain data verifiable; vendor framing aside).
The 'French whale' Théo made over $80M on Polymarket betting on Trump
CBS News / 60 Minutes · 2024
Concentration as a perception vector: four accounts held ~25–40%+ of contracts, showing a few large players can move displayed odds.
Manipulation in Prediction Markets: An Agent-based Modeling Experiment
Smart, Mark, Bastian & Waugh, arXiv:2601.20452 · 2026
The theoretical prior for how much a whale moves displayed odds — distortion scales with a player's share of market capital.
Statistical signals, not allegations. Every dimension measures a structural property of a market — the shape of its flow, the clarity of its question, the trustworthiness of its resolution source. A low score flags where a careful trader should look harder. It is never a claim that a specific account, or the market itself, has broken a rule.