Most of the wallets betting on a Bill Clinton divorce are only days old
78 percent of the top wallets in this market were created within two days of placing their bet. Two of them hold about 38 percent each, on NO.
The market on whether Bill Clinton files for divorce by June 30 has a texture all its own. It is mostly being traded by wallets that did not exist a week ago.
On-chain analysis
Of the most active wallets here, 78 percent were created within two days of their first trade. On a tabloid question with little real information to trade on, a wave of brand-new accounts is itself a signal worth seeing.
Two of those wallets stand out, holding roughly 38 percent each, both betting NO, that there will be no divorce. One of them, 0xd97a…ca13, also runs a dominant position in a separate market on Chinese AI models. The same hand, two unrelated questions.
None of this says anyone knows something. It says a low-information market drew a flood of fresh wallets and at least one cross-market operator, and that the price reflects them more than it reflects any crowd.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant NO wallet
Moderate confidence- a single address holds 38.3% of all market volume
- 8 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Dominant NO wallet
Moderate confidence- a single address holds 38.3% of all market volume
- 9 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=76.6%fresh=78%wash=1Wallets that drove the risk
A near-term June 30 resolution on a low-information tabloid question.
“Resolves YES if Bill Clinton files for or finalizes a divorce before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.