Market Risk WatchLive · daily
The 10 highest-risk prediction markets today, scored across all six BRI-PM dimensions. Each row shows the dimension driving its risk and links to a full on-chain breakdown.
Top 10 · refreshed daily · re-scored as wallets move
16 of 10 investigated · new breakdowns published daily
4,731
active markets scanned
470K
wallets mapped on-chain
18
controlled entities flagged
10
markets with concentrated control
4
fresh-wallet floods
16
investigations published
RankMarket & risk signalsRisk scoreStory
1New
Politics1,246 trades
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 92.7% of market volume
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519CAST
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2New
Politics1,942 trades
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 67.4% of market volume80% of top wallets created within 2 days of entry7 wash round-trip patterns
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550FORGED
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3New
Politics15,197 trades
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Coordinated ring controls 25.3% of volumeTop entities control 67.8% of market volume87% of top wallets created within 2 days of entry
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551FORGED
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4New
Politics1,561 trades
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 76.6% of market volume78% of top wallets created within 2 days of entry1 wash round-trip patterns
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554FORGED
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5New
Tech2,715 trades
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 78.6% of market volume1 wash round-trip patterns
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571FORGED
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6New
Politics2,706 trades
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Coordinated ring controls 8.6% of volumeTop entities control 30.4% of market volume100% of top wallets created within 2 days of entry
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577FORGED
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7New
Other1,517 trades
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 34.8% of market volume37 wash round-trip patterns
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580FORGED
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8New
Tech1,692 trades
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 82.2% of market volume
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585FORGED
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9New
Politics662 trades
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Risk driver: Manipulation-pattern microstructure
Top entities control 53.9% of market volume1 wash round-trip patterns
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586FORGED
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10New
Tech11,515 trades
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Risk driver: Informed-trading / operator control
Top entities control 74.6% of market volume
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587FORGED
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Ranked by the full BRI-PM v0.2 composite, all six dimensions weighted (informed 0.35, integrity 0.20, oracle 0.15, catalyst, design, counterparty 0.10 each; 300 to 1000, lower is riskier), over markets with $50K+ volume and 200+ wallets. The informed and integrity dimensions are rebuilt from the wallet network, which is why concentration and coordinated control drive most of today's board; oracle, design, and counterparty currently carry little discriminating signal and will move the ranking more as that data fills in. The taker_fraction metric is quarantined.