One wallet has $806,000 riding on the US declaring war on Venezuela
0x6a73a4b2 holds 67 percent of the market, betting YES. Eighty percent of the wallets here are days old, and this one also trades the Iran markets.
The market on whether the United States officially declares war on Venezuela by June 30 is, for the most part, one wallet's bet that it will.
On-chain analysis
Of the $1.2 million traded here, a single address, 0x6a73a4b2, holds $806,000, betting YES. That is 67 percent of the market, on a question about whether the United States goes to war.
Eighty percent of the most active wallets in this market were created within two days of their first trade. A fresh crowd forming around one large directional bet is not the picture of a market pricing a real probability.
The wallet is not new to this kind of question. It also appears in the cluster trading Iran-related markets, the same geopolitical operation behind the Reza Pahlavi book. The integrity score here sits at 10 out of 100.
We are not naming anyone or suggesting they know something about US foreign policy. We are showing you that two-thirds of a war-declaration market is one wallet, surrounded by wallets that did not exist a week ago.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant YES wallet
High confidence- a single address holds 67.4% of all market volume
- 144 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=67.4%fresh=80%wash=7Wallets that drove the risk
A hard June 30 deadline on a live foreign-policy question.
“Resolves YES if the United States issues a formal declaration of war against Venezuela before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer, which scores all six dimensions and rebuilds the informed and integrity dimensions from the wallet network. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.