Every active wallet in this $3.7M market is days old, and they trade in identical blocks
On an Israel-Syria security pact, 100 percent of the top wallets were freshly created, and dozens trade the exact same sizes: $15,106, $30,166, $15,048.
The Israel-Syria security-agreement market has moved $3.7 million, more than almost anything on the board. Every one of its most active wallets was created within days of betting, and they move in lockstep.
On-chain analysis
This is one of the busiest markets of the week, $3.7 million across 676 wallets. It is also, by one measure, the most artificial: 100 percent of its top wallets were created within two days of their first trade.
They do not trade like individuals. Twenty-one wallets staked the identical $15,106. Ten staked the identical $30,166. Another eighteen staked $15,048. Same sizes, same NO side, the signature of an operator running blocks of wallets rather than a crowd placing bets.
It is the same playbook seen on the Reza Pahlavi and Iran-regime markets, the $15,000-block geopolitical operation, here at a larger scale, and the wallets recur together across those markets.
We name no one. We are showing you a multimillion-dollar market that, on-chain, is a wall of fresh wallets moving in identical sizes.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Coordinated NO-side ring
High confidence- 21 wallets traded the byte-identical $15,106
- all on the NO side
Show 8 sample wallets
Coordinated NO-side ring
High confidence- 10 wallets traded the byte-identical $30,166
- all on the NO side
Show 8 sample wallets
Coordinated NO-side ring
High confidence- 18 wallets traded the byte-identical $15,048
- all on the NO side
Show 8 sample wallets
Coordinated NO-side ring
High confidence- 15 wallets traded the byte-identical $15,030
- all on the NO side
Show 8 sample wallets
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
ring_share=8.6%concentration=30.4%fresh=100%Wallets that drove the risk
A June 30 deadline on a fast-moving regional negotiation.
“Resolves YES if Israel and Syria sign a formal security agreement before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer, which scores all six dimensions and rebuilds the informed and integrity dimensions from the wallet network. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.