A wallet active in 33 markets holds a third of the 'US gets Iran's uranium' bet
0x74471a took 35 percent of the market on NO, alongside 37 wash round-trips. It is one of the busiest cross-market operators on the board.
The market on whether the United States obtains Iran's enriched uranium by June 30 is held down on one side by a wallet that trades almost everywhere.
On-chain analysis
One address, 0x74471a, holds 35 percent of this $374,000 market, betting NO. What sets it apart is its reach: it is active across 33 different Polymarket markets, one of the most prolific operators we track.
The market also carries 37 wash round-trips, same-wallet trades that add turnover without taking a real position, pulling integrity to 14 out of 100.
A single wallet that is a third of one market and a presence in 33 others is the kind of actor whose positions shape prices across the board, not just here.
We assert nothing about intent or knowledge. We are showing you the concentration, the wash trades, and the operator's unusual reach.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant NO wallet
Moderate confidence- a single address holds 34.8% of all market volume
- 60 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=34.8%wash=37Wallets that drove the risk
A June 30 deadline on an active nuclear-diplomacy question.
“Resolves YES if the United States takes possession of Iranian enriched uranium before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer, which scores all six dimensions and rebuilds the informed and integrity dimensions from the wallet network. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.