Two wallets hold 54 percent of the 'Taiwan's president impeached' market, both on no
0x6147f1 and a second wallet each hold about 27 percent, betting Lai Ching-te will not be impeached.
The market on whether Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te, is impeached by June 30 is more than half held by two wallets, both betting it will not happen.
On-chain analysis
Two addresses each hold about 27 percent of this $789,000 market, both on NO. Together they are 54 percent of all the money on a question about the removal of a head of state.
The integrity score here is 10 out of 100, the floor, driven by that concentration and the thinness of the rest of the book.
When two wallets are the majority of a geopolitical market, the price is their agreement, not a read on Taiwanese politics.
We name no one. We are showing you two wallets, the same side, and 54 percent of the market between them.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant NO wallet
Moderate confidence- a single address holds 27.0% of all market volume
- 15 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Dominant NO wallet
Moderate confidence- a single address holds 26.9% of all market volume
- 16 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=53.9%wash=1Wallets that drove the risk
A June 30 deadline on a domestic political question with a fixed horizon.
“Resolves YES if Lai Ching-te is impeached or removed before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer, which scores all six dimensions and rebuilds the informed and integrity dimensions from the wallet network. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.