One wallet has staked $1.24 million on Nebius being acquired
It is 75 percent of the market, and the same address that dominates GitLab, Perplexity and Pizza Hut. Nebius is its biggest bet.
The acquisition operator's largest single position sits in the Nebius market: $1.24 million, three-quarters of all the money, on YES.
On-chain analysis
Of the four acquisition markets one wallet controls, Nebius is the deepest, with $1.67 million traded across more than 1,900 wallets. The wallet, 0x6af1…6d4b, owns $1.24 million of it, 75 percent, betting the company will be bought.
A million-dollar bet on a single corporate outcome is not something a thin retail crowd can offset. When one wallet is three-quarters of the volume, the market is its position and everyone else is trading around the edges of it.
It is the same operator behind the GitLab, Perplexity and Pizza Hut markets, and Nebius is where it has put the most money. That, in itself, is a tell about where its conviction, or its information, runs deepest.
We name no one and allege nothing. We are showing you a $1.24 million position, the side it is on, and the three other markets the same wallet runs.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant YES wallet
High confidence- a single address holds 74.6% of all market volume
- 29 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=74.6%participant_risk=45/100Wallets that drove the risk
Open 'before 2027' horizon.
“Resolves YES if Nebius Group is acquired before January 1, 2027, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.