Two fresh wallets own 93 percent of the 'Ukraine retakes Crimea' market, both betting no
Two addresses, each holding about 46 percent on NO, control almost the entire $613,000 market. Both were created days before they bet.
There are 337 wallets in the market on whether Ukraine will recapture Crimea by June 30. Two of them are, for any practical purpose, the entire market.
On-chain analysis
The two largest wallets hold 46.5 and 46.2 percent of all volume here, about $285,000 each, both on NO, that Ukraine will not retake Crimea by the deadline. Together they are 92.7 percent of the market.
Both wallets were created within two days of their first trade. A geopolitical market in which two brand-new accounts hold 93 percent of the money, on the same side, is not a forecast. It is two actors setting a number that everyone else reads as the odds.
We make no claim about who they are, or whether they coordinated beyond what the chain shows: same side, near-equal size, fresh wallets, 93 percent between them. On a market that turns on the course of a war, that concentration is the story.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Dominant NO wallet
High confidence- a single address holds 46.5% of all market volume
- 22 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Dominant NO wallet
High confidence- a single address holds 46.2% of all market volume
- 19 trades
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: On-chain trade-signature linkage + wallet-age + both-sides. Realized PnL not asserted (needs CTF decoder).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
concentration=92.7%Wallets that drove the risk
A hard June 30 deadline on an active war makes the market acutely catalyst-exposed in its final weeks.
“Resolves YES if Ukraine regains control of Crimean territory before July 1, 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure is read from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM v0.2 scorer. Polymarket system contracts are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity and wallet-risk groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.