Two hands are writing the odds on 'Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?'
About $2.2 million has traded across more than 2,100 wallets. Roughly 71 percent of it belongs to two actors, on opposite sides.
On paper, the market on whether Reza Pahlavi will lead Iran in 2026 looks like a genuine crowd. Pull the thread on who actually holds the money, and the crowd thins to two.
On-chain analysis
One wallet, 0x011f…6771, sits on $921,000 of YES, nearly 42 percent of the entire market, built across 119 outsized trades. It is the single largest position in any market on this week's board.
The other side is stranger. On May 17, sixty-seven wallets entered this market for the first time, every one of them betting NO. Thirty-seven of them did something no independent trader does: each staked the identical amount, $15,066, to the dollar. Same size, same day, same side. That is not a crowd reaching a consensus. It is one operator running a script.
Those wallets are not throwaways, either. The same cluster reappears together in other geopolitical markets, the May 31 Iran-regime question, a Satoshi-identity bet, an Israel-Syria market. It is a standing operation that moves from question to question.
Put the whale and the ring together and roughly 71 percent of this market is two players arguing with each other. The odds a casual bettor sees, and trusts, are mostly that argument. We are not naming anyone and we are not alleging a crime. We are showing you the wallets, the matching sizes, and the shared day, and letting you judge what a fair market should look like.
Wallet network
Deeper layerBeyond single-wallet metrics: who is actually behind the flow. We group pseudonymous wallets into controlled-entity candidates using observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day entry, shared side, single-market lifetime.
Drag any node to explore. Hover to trace its links. Click a wallet for its validated on-chain pages.
- This market
- Dominant wallet
- Coordinated ring
Funder tracing resolved only to Polymarket-internal deposit rails at the first hop, and the behavioral-cluster index did not cover this market, so the linkage below is built entirely from on-chain trade signatures (identical size, same-day entry, shared side) plus verified cross-market co-occurrence, the most defensible layer available today. Wallet realized PnL is not asserted: it needs a Polymarket CTF mint/merge-aware decoder (in progress).
Coordinated NO-side ring
High confidence- 37 of the wallets traded the byte-identical $15,066
- all 67 wallets first became active in this market on 2026-05-17
- every wallet trades the NO side
- the same wallets recur together across other geopolitical markets (Iran-regime-by-May-31, Satoshi-identity, Israel-Syria), a persistent cross-market operator, not single-use burners
Show 8 sample wallets
Dominant YES whale
High confidence- a single address holds 41.9% of all market volume
- 119 trades at an average size far above the rest of the book
Show 1 sample wallet
Coverage & limits: Funder tracing resolved only to Polymarket-internal deposit rails at the first hop, and the behavioral-cluster index did not cover this market, so the linkage below is built entirely from on-chain trade signatures (identical size, same-day entry, shared side) plus verified cross-market co-occurrence, the most defensible layer available today. Wallet realized PnL is not asserted: it needs a Polymarket CTF mint/merge-aware decoder (in progress).
Wallet risk
Cross-marketEach controlling wallet scored across all of its Polymarket activity: ring membership, concentration, wallet freshness, and cross-market footprint, with market-makers down-weighted. Higher is more insider-like.
Signals exposed
37 wallets · identical $15,066 · same day · recurs across 5 marketstop_wallet_share = 41.9%wash_round_trips = 382Wallets that drove the risk
An open-ended 'leads Iran in 2026' framing keeps the market live all year, a long runway for a dominant wallet and a coordinated ring to set the visible price.
“Resolves YES if Reza Pahlavi holds a recognized leadership role over Iran at any point in 2026, per credible reporting.”
Every figure here is read directly from on-chain Polygon trade logs for this market and from BlackHart's BRI-PM scorer. Polymarket shared system contracts (CTF Exchange, NegRisk adapter, ConditionalTokens vault, proxy implementation) are excluded from every wallet figure. Entity groupings are statistical inferences from observable on-chain signatures, identical trade size, same-day first entry, shared side, and cross-market co-occurrence.
The BlackHart extension overlays this risk score directly on Polymarket , so you see the signal before you place the trade.